Tuesday
What a turnabout we are seeing in the Russo-Ukrainian War. For the longest time, it appeared that the two sides had settled into a prolonged war of attrition, only for the Ukrainians to mount an impressive counteroffensive and recapture, in a week, land that Russian had taken two months to subdue. Military analyst Lawrence Freedman cited a passage from Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises to describe the turn of affair of affairs:
“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
Freedman explains,
As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and well-equipped army can break and look for means of escape. This is not unusual in war. We saw it happen with the Afghan Army in the summer of 2021.
For the past few days we have been witnessing a remarkable Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv. We have the spectacle of a bedraggled army in retreat— remnants of a smashed-up convoy, abandoned vehicles, positions left in a hurry, with scattered kit and uneaten food, miserable prisoners, and local people cheering on the Ukrainian forces as they drive through their villages. The speed of advance has been impressive, as tens of square kilometres turn into hundreds and then thousands, and from a handful of villages and towns liberated to dozens. Even as I have been writing this post paragraphs keep on getting overtaken by events.
Stories are emerging of Russian soldiers throwing away their guns and running, and perhaps you’ve seen this video of a panicked Russian tank, shedding soldiers clinging to its turret as it careens down the road before finally running into a tree. A running joke is that Russia has now become the leading supplier of armaments to Ukraine because of all the equipment that fleeing troops have left behind. Another joke—this one directed at spin from the Russian Minister of Defense—imagines him reporting that the Russian troops have retreated victoriously while the Ukrainian army is running after them in panic. Although one must be careful not to read too much into these reports, Ukrainian advances in the north have been impressive.
Which is why I’ve been thinking about the scene in Stephen Crane’s Red Badge of Courage where the protagonist is himself seized with panic, throwing down his rifle, and fleeing in blind fear. The seeds are sown on his way to his first battle. I imagine the Russian soldiers looking out at a forest as he does:
Absurd ideas took hold upon him. He thought that he did not relish the landscape. It threatened him. A coldness swept over his back, and it is true that his trousers felt to him that they were no fit for his legs at all.
A house standing placidly in distant fields had to him an ominous look. The shadows of the woods were formidable. He was certain that in this vista there lurked fierce-eyed hosts. The swift thought came to him that the generals did not know what they were about. It was all a trap. Suddenly those close forests would bristle with rifle barrels. Ironlike brigades would appear in the rear. They were all going to be sacrificed. The generals were stupids. The enemy would presently swallow the whole command. He glared about him, expecting to see the stealthy approach of his death.
He thought that he must break from the ranks and harangue his comrades. They must not all be killed like pigs; and he was sure it would come to pass unless they were informed of these dangers. The generals were idiots to send them marching into a regular pen. There was but one pair of eyes in the corps. He would step forth and make a speech. Shrill and passionate words came to his lips.
Although he withstands the first round of fire from the enemy, the second proves too much, draining him and those around him of all resolve:
A man near him who up to this time had been working feverishly at his rifle suddenly stopped and ran with howls. A lad whose face had borne an expression of exalted courage, the majesty of he who dares give his life, was, at an instant, smitten abject. He blanched like one who has come to the edge of a cliff at midnight and is suddenly made aware. There was a revelation. He, too, threw down his gun and fled. There was no shame in his face. He ran like a rabbit.
Others began to scamper away through the smoke. The youth turned his head, shaken from his trance by this movement as if the regiment was leaving him behind. He saw the few fleeting forms.
He yelled then with fright and swung about. For a moment, in the great clamor, he was like a proverbial chicken. He lost the direction of safety. Destruction threatened him from all points.
Directly he began to speed toward the rear in great leaps. His rifle and cap were gone. His unbuttoned coat bulged in the wind. The flap of his cartridge box bobbed wildly, and his canteen, by its slender cord, swung out behind. On his face was all the horror of those things which he imagined.
And:
He ran like a blind man. Two or three times he fell down. Once he knocked his shoulder so heavily against a tree that he went headlong.
Since he had turned his back upon the fight his fears had been wondrously magnified. Death about to thrust him between the shoulder blades was far more dreadful than death about to smite him between the eyes. When he thought of it later, he conceived the impression that it is better to view the appalling than to be merely within hearing. The noises of the battle were like stones; he believed himself liable to be crushed.
As he ran on he mingled with others. He dimly saw men on his right and on his left, and he heard footsteps behind him. He thought that all the regiment was fleeing, pursued by those ominous crashes.
In his flight the sound of these following footsteps gave him his one meager relief. He felt vaguely that death must make a first choice of the men who were nearest; the initial morsels for the dragons would be then those who were following him. So he displayed the zeal of an insane sprinter in his purpose to keep them in the rear. There was a race.
Fear can be contagious, especially amongst troops that (like the Russians) are badly trained, badly equipped, and badly led. While there’s probably still a lot of fighting ahead, the last few days appear to have been a turning point.
The latest word is that Russia is having trouble getting troops to volunteer for the war—and to reenlist—leaving Putin with few options. After all, if he mobilizes the country as a whole, he will face increasing resistance. Russia’s war in Afghanistan brought down the Soviet Union and this war could well bring down Russia’s current dictator.